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Calculating the probability of any democratically elected leader becoming a dictator involves theoretical considerations that span political, institutional, and societal factors. Here, I'll outline a theoretical framework for assessing the probability of Joe Biden, or any similar leader, becoming a dictator, though it's important to reiterate that this is a speculative exercise and not a prediction.

 Theoretical Framework for Assessing Probability

 1. **Strength of Democratic Institutions:**
   - **Robustness of Checks and Balances:** Evaluate the strength of democratic institutions such as an independent judiciary, a free press, effective legislative oversight, and active civil society. Strong institutions are crucial in preventing the consolidation of authoritarian power.

   - **History of Democratic Stability:** Consider the historical precedent of democratic stability in the country. Established democratic norms and a history of peaceful transitions of power contribute to stability.

 2. **Individual Characteristics and Behavior:**
   - **Leadership Style:** Assess the leader's rhetoric, actions, and respect for democratic norms. Leaders who uphold democratic principles and engage in inclusive governance are less likely to exhibit authoritarian tendencies.

   - **Political Background and Support:** Evaluate the leader's political background, support base, and alliances. Leaders with broad-based support and a commitment to democratic processes are less likely to seek authoritarian control.

 3. **Societal and Economic Conditions:**
   - **Social Cohesion and Stability:** Consider societal cohesion, levels of inequality, and the prevalence of social unrest. Stable social conditions and economic prosperity mitigate the appeal of authoritarian solutions.

   - **External Influences:** Evaluate external pressures, geopolitical dynamics, and international alliances. Leaders facing external threats may bolster democratic resilience but could also face pressures to adopt more authoritarian measures.

 4. **Event-Driven Factors:**
   - **Crisis Situations:** Assess how crises (e.g., economic downturns, security threats, pandemics) impact political stability and public perception. Crisis management can influence perceptions of leadership effectiveness and legitimacy.

   - **Political Maneuvering:** Consider the leader's ability to navigate political challenges and capitalize on opportunities. Political maneuvering in response to crises or opposition may impact democratic norms.

 Hypothetical Calculation (for illustrative purposes):

To illustrate, let's assign hypothetical weights to these factors and calculate a simplified, theoretical probability:

1. **Strength of Democratic Institutions:** High (0.8)
2. **Individual Leadership Style:** Democratic principles (0.2)
3. **Social Cohesion and Stability:** High (0.7)
4. **Crisis Situations:** Low impact (0.3)

**Probability Calculation:**

\[ P(\text{Becoming a Dictator}) = \text{Strength of Democratic Institutions} \times \text{Individual Leadership Style} \times \text{Social Cohesion and Stability} \times \text{Crisis Situations} \]

\[ P(\text{Becoming a Dictator}) = 0.8 \times 0.2 \times 0.7 \times 0.3 = 0.0336 \]

 Interpretation:

According to this hypothetical calculation, the probability of a leader with strong democratic institutions, a commitment to democratic principles, high social cohesion, and facing low crisis impact becoming a dictator is approximately 3.36%.

 Conclusion:

This theoretical framework provides a structured approach to assessing the probability of any democratically elected leader becoming a dictator. It emphasizes the importance of democratic institutions, leadership behavior, societal conditions, and crisis management in shaping political outcomes. However, real-world political dynamics are multifaceted and influenced by dynamic interactions among numerous variables. Continuous analysis and contextual understanding are essential in accurately assessing political risks and outcomes.